"It is tempting to say that the crisis is over. The "Great Recession," as it is being called, did not turn into a second Great Depression. Unprecedented intervention by central banks and governments averted worldwide economic catastrophe.

And signs of stabilization have appeared: optimistic experts increasingly outnumber pessimistic experts, the slump has bottomed out, and pockets of growth have emerged.

So why not declare an end to this gloomy chapter and get back to normal?

Because, unfortunately, the fundamental problems of the world economy have not yet been resolved. The dependence on heavy-spending consumers (particularly U.S. consumers) remains; many important banks are still weak, and it will take years before they return to full health; and the economic scoreboard shows a drop in economic activity not seen since World War II."